Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 4.094110 4.807347 5.596725 6.533578 7.613487 8.817565 10.260110
2025-09-07 3.045534 4.016544 5.207963 6.769785 8.754815 11.184364 14.373150
2025-09-14 2.317188 3.372624 4.784952 6.795418 9.562768 13.213672 18.365679
2025-09-21 1.831976 2.904552 4.451014 6.812211 10.287358 15.166382 22.473560
2025-09-28 1.487520 2.545353 4.174680 6.819853 10.945410 17.055091 26.680208
2025-10-05 1.357583 2.479487 4.307142 7.431526 12.545865 20.461400 33.459945
2025-10-12 1.184842 2.302991 4.224084 7.671819 13.576130 23.095685 39.337600
2025-10-19 1.045086 2.153010 4.152994 7.906879 14.606666 25.817698 45.617955
2025-10-26 0.902479 1.967520 3.984305 7.936374 15.273539 27.991384 51.196839
2025-11-02 0.753043 1.737529 3.692755 7.691014 15.407123 29.249910 55.320291
2025-11-09 0.616804 1.506054 3.357652 7.306439 15.221618 29.904930 58.418999
2025-11-16 0.529071 1.361474 3.171979 7.184678 15.510601 31.431241 63.214161
2025-11-23 0.456310 1.238676 3.017146 7.114467 15.914597 33.256904 68.837843
2025-11-30 0.419187 1.194312 3.027798 7.400905 17.086542 36.690398 77.893541
2025-12-07 0.370549 1.110224 2.933343 7.439664 17.739248 39.160314 85.298348
2025-12-14 0.327744 1.031808 2.838449 7.461774 18.355327 41.612830 92.896427
2025-12-21 0.290190 0.959181 2.744819 7.471440 18.941439 44.055513 100.695683
2025-12-28 0.287245 0.986257 2.910054 8.137234 21.113011 50.079267 116.543051
2026-01-04 0.266300 0.954442 2.914630 8.398691 22.360521 54.204597 128.678441
2026-01-11 0.247101 0.923725 2.916977 8.654293 23.622484 58.476147 141.496579
2026-01-18 0.222074 0.868045 2.839632 8.686377 24.334794 61.566187 151.953462
2026-01-25 0.190894 0.783447 2.663025 8.419656 24.256566 62.817363 158.355115
2026-02-01 0.159954 0.691082 2.445233 8.001479 23.729550 62.950577 162.179950